The Inflammatory Bowel Disease (IBD) Simulator™ is based on a mechanistic multi-state mathematical model to simulate disease mechanisms and predict treatment outcomes. It provides insights into gut tissue inflammation, necroptosis, and clinically measurable biomarkers, enabling researchers to refine therapeutic strategies. By leveraging advanced modeling techniques, this platform provides clinical score predictions such as the Mayo score and Crohn’s Disease Activity Index (CDAI). The model addresses critical questions in treatment strategy, including target selection, dosage optimization, and actionable steps. Certara’s IBD model applies to a range of treatment approaches.
Inflammatory Bowel Disease (IBD) Simulator™
Predict disease activity score to personalize treatment
Learn more about the Inflammatory Bowel Disease (IBD) Simulator
Simulates Crohn’s disease and ulcerative colitis using shared biological mechanisms
Predicts clinical scores through machine-learning integration with gut markers
Guides clinical trial design with data-driven insights
IBD Simulator: Beyond guesswork
Unpredictable trial outcomes and unclear patient response are persistent challenges in IBD drug development — ones the IBD Simulator is designed to address. Delivered through the Certara IQ platform, this mechanistic model simulates disease biology and treatment response, capturing inflammatory dynamics across the blood, gut, and lumen to predict endpoints like Mayo score and CDAI.
Teams can use it to:
- Test how new pathways interact with known inflammatory networks
- Benchmark against therapies with established clinical behavior
- Model combination therapies to push past current response ceilings
What does the IBD model simulate?
- Blood, gut, and lumen compartments
- Key immune cell types and cytokines representing key drivers of gut inflammation
- Key biomarkers and clinical scores
What does it predict?
- Gut tissue inflammation
- Necroptosis
- Clinically measurable biomarker estimation
- Clinical score prediction
Built for modern modalities and strategy questions
- Small molecules
- Anti-cytokine antibodies (monoclonal and multi-specifics)
- Combination therapies
One platform. Fully documented.
The Certara IQ platform home page explains how the model works, how virtual populations are built, where the model can be applied, and the scientific evidence supporting it. The model platform gives users everything they need to get started: the model file, documentation, parameters available for optimization, published clinical data for parameterization, and end-to-end case studies they can adapt to their own programs.
Calibrated with clinical trial data
Users can generate and calibrate virtual populations against existing clinical data to establish a credible baseline. A fully documented, step-by-step workflow shows how each population was built—building confidence in the predictions that follow.
Simulate entire patient populations
Users can simulate thousands of digital patients and visualize outcomes with built-in tools—revealing insights into gut inflammation, necroptosis, clinically measurable biomarkers, and predicted clinical scores.
Meet the QSP experts
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Experts
An Do Dela, PhD
Sr Scientist, QSP
With years of experience applying mathematics to translational drug development, An holds a Ph.D. and M.S. in Applied Mathematics from Claremont Graduate University, with research in global parameter sensitivity analysis for biological models. At Certara, she is a subject matter expert on an IBD QSP platform, using Certara IQ, MATLAB, SimBiology...
Connect
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Experts
Andrzej Kierzek, PhD
VP, QSP R&D
With 25 years of experience in computational biology. Andrzej has published models and software for analysis of molecular network dynamics and constraint based modelling of genome scale metabolic networks. Currently, his scientific work focuses on immuno-oncology and immunogenicity. He is a visiting Professor of Systems Biology at Surrey.
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Certara offers Quantitative Systems Pharmacology (QSP) platform models across diverse therapeutic areas, enabling data-driven insights to accelerate drug development. Our tailored solutions integrate complex biological systems to support informed decision-making in research and clinical settings.
Speak to a QSP expert
Get in touch with our QSP experts to learn about Certara’s Inflammatory Bowel Disease (IBD) QSP Platform and how it can be applied to support treatments for CD and UC to predict disease activity score.
Predict disease activity scores with precision
Optimize treatment strategies for Crohn’s disease and ulcerative colitis
Enhance clinical trial design with data-driven insights
