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Selecting the optimal dose and trial design for Phase 3 can be challenging when clinical evidence is limited. In this case study, a pharmaceutical company developing a novel rheumatoid arthritis therapy partnered with Certara to apply model-based meta-analysis (MBMA) using Phase 2 and external clinical trial data. By integrating efficacy and safety data, accounting for key patient covariates, and simulating multiple Phase 3 scenarios, Certara helped identify the optimal development strategy before initiating a pivotal trial. The resulting evidence improved confidence in dose selection, informed competitive positioning, and reduced development risk while accurately predicting Phase 3 outcomes.

The challenge

A pharmaceutical company developing a new treatment for rheumatoid arthritis needed to determine the optimal dose and strategy for Phase 3 trials—based only on results from two randomized Phase 2 studies. ​

Key questions included:​

  • ​How does the new compound compare in efficacy and safety to existing and emerging treatments?​
  • What trial design would maximize success: superiority or non-inferiority?​
  • How should patient population characteristics influence development decisions?​

Certara support

Model-based meta-analysis (MBMA) for rheumatoid arthritis guided Phase 3 planning by:​

Integrating Data: Combined Phase 2 and external data from clinical trials for rheumatoid arthritis to build dose-response models for efficacy (ACR20/50/70) and safety.​

Adjusting for Covariates: Accounted for key factors like baseline CRP, methotrexate use, and geographic differences.​

Simulating Trials: Applied rheumatoid arthritis modeling to predict Phase 3 outcomes across different doses, sample sizes, and trial designs (superiority vs. non-inferiority).​

Evaluating Therapeutic Index: Assessed benefit-risk profiles across compounds to inform competitive positioning.​

The impact

  • Optimized Phase 3 Strategy: Informed dose selection and Phase 3 trial design, increasing likelihood of success.​
  • Competitive Insights: Clarified how the compound compares in efficacy and safety within its class.​​
  • Model Validation: Simulated outcomes closely matched actual Phase 3 results, boosting confidence in the approach.​
  • Efficient Decision-Making: Enabled data-driven progression to Phase 3, reducing uncertainty and resource risk.​

“MBMA provided clarity and confidence to design a successful Phase 3 trial—using only Phase 2 data and external evidence.”

Matt Zierhut, VP, MBMA Capability Lead, Certara

Contact us

Ready to reduce uncertainty in your next development program? Connect with Certara’s MBMA experts to learn how model-based meta-analysis can strengthen Phase 3 planning and accelerate confident decision-making.