Innovative Pharmacology to Health Economics Approach Using A Multi-Scale COVID-19 Transmission Model
Hazem Hassan, Assoc Director, Clinical Pharmacology, Regeneron, Nidal Huniti, Exec Director, Regeneron, Roman Casciano, SVP, Certara, Mohamed Kamal, Director Clinical Pharmacology, Regeneron, Andreas Kuznik, Executive Director, HEOR, Regeneron, Patrick Smith, SVP, iDD, Certara |
The global impact of COVID-19 has been profound, and the public health threat it represents is the most serious since the 1918 H1N1 influenza pandemic. Current influenza and SARS-CoV-2 epidemiological models vary in sophistication, ranging from simple susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) models to multi-scale approaches (Ferguson et al, Strategies for mitigating an influenza pandemic, Nature, 2006) that incorporate antiviral and vaccine interventions, non-pharmaceutical interventions (e.g. school closure, home isolation of cases), population movement patterns, social behaviors, and social contact networks. The objective of this session is to discuss a novel agent-based multiscale transmission model for COVID-19 that links drug pharmacology, epidemiology and health economics for better assessment of the pandemic. The speakers will discuss how drug pharmacology data (e.g., emerging data from novel therapeutic modalities such as anti-spike mAb cocktail for COVID-19 treatment and prevention, and remdesevir for treatment), epidemiology data (e.g., real-time data from WHO, CDC, and US state-level pandemic surveillance databases), and health economics data (e.g., emerging literature and clinical trial data on mortality/hospitalization) can be leveraged for a more efficient allocation of an anticipated finite supply of COVID-19 therapeutics. For example, the number of infected patients in the US population and the key epidemiological outcomes would enter an analytic decision tree assessing cost of health care utilization and effectiveness of various interventions (Kamal et al, 2017) . The session would conclude by providing various simulated pandemic mitigation and suppression scenarios (with and without a pharmaceutical intervention) to evaluate key questions such as: 1) What is the transmission trajectory of the pandemic and associated healthcare outcomes; 2) How is the finite supply of anti-COVID-19 drug strategically deployed and allocated within the population (e.g., by age, or use as a treatment vs. prophylaxis) and 3) What is the value of COVID-19 therapy/prophylaxis and the implications on pricing therapeutic interventions.